Azerbaijan, Armenia Previews

It's time again for another pair of qualifiers, with each one becomming more important than the last.

Azerbaijan Preview

No introduction needed for Azerbaijan, as this will be the 4th time Poland will be playing them in the past 15 months including results of 8:0, 3:0, and 5:0 - all in Poland's favour. Azerbaijan has been kind to us, they even beat Finland in their last qualifier to help give us a bit more breathing room at the top of the group.

Although they may not strike you as a good team, they are a tough team at home. In their last 5 matches at home they have amassed a record of 1-4-0. In fact, the last time they lost at home was the last time they played Poland there - June of 2005. Aside from the match against Poland, the last time Azerbaijan allowed 2 goals or more was back in September of 2003 against Finland in a 2:1 defeat. Included in their last 5 home matches are draws with Turkey, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Austria.

What Poland will need to do to succeed is to smother the Azeri defense and force them to make mistakes. In this match the focus must be on offense and scoring at least a couple. In its past 10 matches, Azerbaijan has scored only 4 goals, being shut out 6 times. But Azerbaijan cannot be expected to not score. At home, they have scored 3 times in their past 5. The last time Azerbaijan scored more than one goal was in 2004 against Latvia when they fought to a 2:2 draw. Poland should budget themselves for one goal against though, as scoring just one might be too few for Poland to ensure a desired result, and Azerbaijan have proven capable of being able to score on a semi-consistent basis (not against Poland though!).

Key for this match: Keeping up a relentless attack. A match like this almost encourages a 4-3-3, or at the least - some offensive midfielders to keep the pressure on. One goal in this match might not be enough.

My prediction: 3:0 Poland

Armenia Preview

Armenia and Poland are not as well acquainted as Poland are with the Azeri. In their last meeting, Poland at home won by a narrow 1:0 margin. Prior to that, the last time the two met was during the 2002 World Cup qualifiers where Poland won the first match 4:0 at home, but could only come out of Armenia with a draw (1:1).

Armenia is going to be another tough team to deal with on their turf, but tougher than the Azeri? Perhaps not. In Armenia's last 5 home matches, they have sported a record of 1-1-3. During this span they have allowed 5 goals while scoring 3. Their results have not been as impressive, achieving points only against Andorra (3) and Finland (1) while losing to Belgium, Holland, and Macedonia.

In their most immediate results, Armenia has achieved only a 1-3-6 record in their last 10 matches. The last time the Armenians achieved a win was just under 2 years ago, in September of 2005 against Andorra - also the last time they have scored more than 1 goal in a match. They have failed to score a goal in 8 of their last 10 matches. That doesn't mean that they can't steal points against a formidable opponent, however. In 2006 WCQ they were able to battle Romania to a 1:1 draw, and they have been able to do the same against Poland, however that is even further back in history.

Keys for this match: Similar to Azerbaijan, keeping a persistent attack going. Perhaps even a stronger one than against the Azeri, as the Armenians are more prone to playing for a draw and might frustrate the Polish attack if the match goes deadlocked into half-time or later while the Armenians keep aimlessly lobbing balls onto the Polish side of the pitch.

Prediction: 2:0 Poland

Summary

Offensively, Azerbaijan is more of a threat, but defensively, Armenia's defense might be more difficult to penetrate. Given Poland hasn't had much trouble keeping Azerbaijan off the scoreboard in recent matches, I'd expect the Armenian match to be tighter.

The importance in both games will be striking early for Poland, as if they get the first one, they will have eased the pressure and will be able to go at a better pace. However if they go late without a goal they may rush chances and waste quality opportunities. The Azeris have more holes in their game and Poland will likely have the opportunities to expose them, however against Armenia that will be harder to do since they are less aggressive, and thus, even more important to score early against them to ensure a victory.

Although I've called for 6 points out of these matches, it wouldn't be surprising if Poland came away with 4 as well, especially if they play the way they did against these two teams in Poland. However, I'm expecting (and hoping) that they come out with a stronger effort and come away with full points.